How many times have you either asked yourself this question or heard the commentary team for a T20 game discuss this very point? Figuring out what a winning first innings score is during any given match requires cricket fans to take into account any number of factors and variables including pitch conditions as well relative team strengths and weaknesses.
However, from a statistical stand point and looking across a sizeable number of matches at a specific ground we see that certain stadiums generally require lower first innings scores in order for teams to defend while others often see sides batting second chasing higher totals.
The purpose of the What’s a winning score tool below is to look back across the history of T20 matches played at a specific ground and see how many times a certain first innings score has been defended vs how many times it has been chased down.
Last updated with results from 19 June 2021
So what exactly do the numbers in the report mean?
Well the easiest way to explain it is to give an example.
If you were interested in understanding how good a score of 160 is at the Rose Bowl (sometimes known as the Ageas Bowl) in Southampton then you’d input the relevant fields and be presented with this screen
The 75% successful defence at this score is saying that in all T20 games played at the Rose Bowl, 3 out of 4 sides that have scored 160 or less in their first innings have successfully defended that total while the remaining 1 out of 4 times (25%) the team batting second has successfully chased a total of 160 or higher.
As you can imagine, the higher the first innings score you input the more likely sides are to have defended it and vice versa.
The report is particularly effective at highlighting the differences across grounds and stadiums in regards what might be considered a winning score.
For example, if we input the same first innings total for the County Ground at Bristol, we see the reverse in the chances of that being a winning score for the team batting first or to put it another way, 160 is very chaseable at Bristol!
Notes on the statistics included in these reports
- Only matches in which a full 20 overs for each side were available are included i.e. games that were either interrupted by rain (or anything else) or required DLS for a result are not included in the report above
- All T20 Blast games from the 2014 season onwards are included
- All PSL games from 2016 onwards are included
- All IPL games from 2008 onwards are included
- All T20i matches including those played during ICC tournaments are included but only matches that featured at least 1 Test playing nation at the time are considered i.e. matches between affiliate nations are not included in these stats
- These stats will be updated on a regular basis and we’ll be adding new venues throughout the year